Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1351

   Mesoscale Discussion 1351
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0308 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

   Areas affected...southern IN...far northern KY/southwest OH

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 434...435...

   Valid 182008Z - 182145Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 434, 435 continues.

   SUMMARY...Damaging wind and a couple tornadoes remain possible with
   the southern portion of a QLCS and broken convection to its south.
   Downstream watch issuance will be likely east of WWs 434/435 by
   early evening.

   DISCUSSION...The slower-moving but yet progressive southern-portion
   of the QLCS will likely spread across southern IN into early
   evening. More broken, semi-discrete convection persists to its south
   and these cells may help refine its southern edge along the IN/KY
   border. The IND VWP indicates still adequate low-level SRH for a
   supercell tornado. Most cells have struggled to more deeply
   intensify despite the ample buoyancy, likely due to development
   ahead of the weak surface front amid marginal mid-level lapse rates
   and the MCV tracking towards northern IN. Sporadic severe wind gusts
   should remain the primary hazard.

   ..Grams.. 06/18/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...

   LAT...LON   39758417 38938475 37998593 37848651 37948750 38268774
               39098697 39838677 40198649 40288570 40218442 39758417 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN