Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1344

   Mesoscale Discussion 1344
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1036 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

   Areas affected...parts of the Mid-Atlantic States

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 181536Z - 181730Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds should increase this
   afternoon as isolated to scattered thunderstorms form off parts of
   the Blue Ridge towards coastal New Jersey and Delaware. Area is
   being monitored for a possible Severe Thunderstorm Watch with
   uncertainty on overall coverage/intensity for severe gusts. An
   upgrade to Slight Risk is likely with the 1630Z Day 1 Outlook.

   DISCUSSION...Initial low-topped convection has been slowly bubbling
   across far northern VA and the eastern WV Panhandle. Airmass
   immediately downstream appears uncapped per mesoanalysis and
   modified 12Z soundings, where surface temperatures have warmed into
   the low to mid 80s. 12Z guidance is consistent in suggesting
   isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing within a region of
   enhanced 700-500 mb west-southwesterlies. This should provide
   sufficient speed shear for a few transient cells with mid-level
   rotation. With poor mid-level lapse rates, hail magnitudes should
   remain small. But if stratus across the northern Chesapeake/Delaware
   Bays vicinity can break up this afternoon, a greater than isolated
   damaging wind threat may be realized.

   ..Grams/Hart.. 06/18/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

   LAT...LON   39067797 39677750 40097619 40037514 39707417 39247463
               38967537 38627599 38577660 38597727 38767779 39067797 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN