Storm Prediction Center Severe Thunderstorm Watch 431
4 min read
4 hours ago
Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended. Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 431
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
930 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Far Northwest Arkansas
South-Central into Southeast Kansas
Far Southwest Missouri
Central and Eastern Oklahoma
* Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 930 PM
until 400 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 85
mph likely
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A pair severe thunderstorm clusters are ongoing across OK,
one across west-central OK and the other across northeast OK. Both
of these clusters will continue to surge eastward over the next
several hours. Strong gusts to 80-85 mph are possible with these
storms. There is also a low-probability tornado risk with these
clusters. Additional thunderstorms are ongoing across south-central
KS. Large hail is currently the primary risk with these storms
although there is with some potential for linear development with
this activity as well. In general, the severe threat is expected to
move from west to east across the region tonight.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80
statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles north northeast
of Chanute KS to 35 miles southeast of Chickasha OK. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 429...WW 430...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 75 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27035.
...Mosier
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 431
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
930 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Far Northwest Arkansas
South-Central into Southeast Kansas
Far Southwest Missouri
Central and Eastern Oklahoma
* Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 930 PM
until 400 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 85
mph likely
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A pair severe thunderstorm clusters are ongoing across OK,
one across west-central OK and the other across northeast OK. Both
of these clusters will continue to surge eastward over the next
several hours. Strong gusts to 80-85 mph are possible with these
storms. There is also a low-probability tornado risk with these
clusters. Additional thunderstorms are ongoing across south-central
KS. Large hail is currently the primary risk with these storms
although there is with some potential for linear development with
this activity as well. In general, the severe threat is expected to
move from west to east across the region tonight.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80
statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles north northeast
of Chanute KS to 35 miles southeast of Chickasha OK. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 429...WW 430...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 75 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27035.
...Mosier
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 431 SEVERE TSTM AR KS MO OK 180230Z - 180900Z
AXIS..80 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
20NNE CNU/CHANUTE KS/ - 35SE CHK/CHICKASHA OK/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 70NM E/W /45WSW BUM - 37NNW ADM/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..75 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27035.
LAT...LON 37939387 34739613 34739894 37939681
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 431 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
Low (5%)
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
High (80%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
High (70%)
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
Mod (60%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Mod (50%)
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (>95%)
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The “Low” category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
“Moderate” from 30% to 60%, and “High” from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.