Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1340

   Mesoscale Discussion 1340
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0848 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of the Rolling Plains

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 430...

   Valid 180148Z - 180315Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 430
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The risk of severe wind gusts and sporadic large hail
   continues across the Rolling Plains.

   DISCUSSION...A pair of organized thunderstorm clusters (with
   occasional supercellular structures) continue tracking slowly
   east-southeastward across the Rolling Plains. These storms have a
   history of producing severe wind gusts (measured 68 mph) and
   marginally severe hail. The MAF 00Z sounding (which should be
   generally representative of the near-storm environment) sampled
   steep deep-layer lapse rates, while the LBB VWP depicts a
   long/straight hodograph (around 45 kt of 0-6 km shear). This should
   support the maintenance of the ongoing storms, with a continued risk
   of severe wind gusts and sporadic large hail. 

   While these storms will have a tendency of tracking southeastward
   out of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 430 with time, current thinking is
   that increased inhibition at the base of the EML will eventually
   lead to weakening with southeastward extent. Therefore, a new watch
   is not currently expected, though convective trends are being
   monitored.

   ..Weinman.. 06/18/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   33330203 34200104 34340066 34310022 34059984 33649981
               33130021 32610122 32710175 32950199 33330203 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN