Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1335

   Mesoscale Discussion 1335
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0443 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of south-central Kansas into far
   north-central Oklahoma

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 429...

   Valid 172143Z - 172315Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 429 continues.

   SUMMARY...Parts of south-central Kansas is the most favorable
   corridor for a couple supercell tornadoes during the next couple
   hours -- within Tornado Watch 429.

   DISCUSSION...A semi-discrete supercell is evolving just north of a
   remnant outflow boundary intersection over far south-central KS this
   afternoon. Along and north of the boundary, an earlier sheltered
   boundary layer (with backed easterly surface winds) has destabilized
   substantially, with temperatures in the lower/middle 80s amid upper
   60s/lower 70s dewpoints. This strongly unstable surface-based air,
   combined with around 50 kt of effective shear, will favor
   intensification of the ongoing supercell and additional cells that
   develop on its flanks. Additionally, a large clockwise-curved
   hodograph (200-250 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH) per earlier VWP data and
   mesoanalysis will support a couple supercell tornadoes with any
   sustained supercells in this corridor over the next couple hours.

   ..Weinman.. 06/17/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   36929757 37209821 37399820 37539802 37619737 37539672
               37349642 36929648 36859695 36929757 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN