Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1323

   Mesoscale Discussion 1323
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0925 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of south-central Nebraska into north-central
   Kansas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 424...

   Valid 170225Z - 170400Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 424
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Scattered severe wind gusts (some 75+ mph) is becoming the
   primary concern in Severe Thunderstorm Watch 424.

   DISCUSSION...An east/west-oriented convective line has become
   increasingly organized across parts of central NE as it moves slowly
   southward. Meanwhile, additional storms are evolving
   east-northeastward toward the evolving MCS from southwest NE and
   northwest KS. While the overall convective evolution is unclear,
   very steep deep-layer lapse rates and related strong surface-based
   instability (sampled by the 00Z DDC sounding), coupled with a 35-kt
   southerly low-level jet (per regional VWP), should favor scattered
   severe wind gusts (some 75+ mph) as storms continue drifting
   southward and begin merging.

   ..Weinman.. 06/17/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD...

   LAT...LON   41179991 41349890 41359793 41069705 40669687 40169711
               39909820 39670035 39810085 40110123 40380124 40710101
               41179991 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN