Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1322

   Mesoscale Discussion 1322
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0756 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

   Areas affected...Southeast Nebraska...Northeast Kansas...Southwest
   Iowa...Northwest Missouri

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 424...

   Valid 170056Z - 170230Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 424
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms across eastern Nebraska and western
   Iowa will continue to push south into Kansas and Missouri this
   evening. The environment will continue to support some severe
   threat. Local extensions of existing Severe Thunderstorm Watch #424
   and/or a new watch will likely be needed.

   DISCUSSION...The apex of a linear MCS/bowing segment continues to
   push south-southeast this evening along the Missouri River in
   eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. These storms have a history of
   producing measured severe winds as they moved through the Omaha
   area. The environment ahead of these thunderstorms remains strongly
   unstable and modestly sheared. Given this environment and the
   established thunderstorm organization, a severe threat will likely
   extend south out of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #424. A combination of
   a local extension in space across Nebraska and Iowa of Severe Watch
   #424 and perhaps a new watch across northeast Kansas and northwest
   Missouri may become necessary in the next 60-90 minutes. Trends are
   being monitored.

   ..Marsh.. 06/17/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

   LAT...LON   39169462 39239593 40109655 41339683 41769592 40909471
               39549408 39169462 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN