Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1321

   Mesoscale Discussion 1321
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0719 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of far eastern Minnesota and northwestern
   Wisconsin

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 423...

   Valid 170019Z - 170145Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 423 continues.

   SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms may continue spreading eastward
   across parts of northwestern Wisconsin. Convective trends are being
   monitored for a possible extension of Tornado Watch 423.

   DISCUSSION...Along the cold front, a broken band of thunderstorms is
   tracking eastward at around 35-40 kt, with occasional bowing
   structures evident. The primary concern with this activity continues
   to be damaging wind gusts, though an embedded tornado cannot be
   ruled out, given a 30-kt low-level jet and related enhanced
   low-level shear. As these storms continue eastward toward the
   eastern edge of Tornado Watch 423, they will encounter weaker
   instability and gradually increasing nocturnal boundary-layer
   stability. However, the focused and strengthening low-level jet may
   compensate for this, and support a continued severe risk across
   parts of northwestern WI. Convective trends are being monitored for
   a possible eastward extension of Tornado Watch 423.

   ..Weinman/Mosier.. 06/17/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...

   LAT...LON   46399232 46469191 46479127 46349065 45859028 45189056
               44879106 44999241 45379324 45599332 45969307 46399232 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN