Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1318

   Mesoscale Discussion 1318
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0612 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

   Areas affected...northeast Colorado

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 424...

   Valid 162312Z - 170045Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 424
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are developing/intensifying across northeast
   Colorado. Isolated large hail and a damaging wind gust or two will
   be possible. However, the isolated nature of the threat should
   preclude a new watch.

   DISCUSSION...Two areas of isolated severe thunderstorms have
   developed across northeast Colorado to the west and southwest of
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch #424. These storms are developing along an
   instability gradient stretching arcing from west-central Kansas
   northwest toward higher terrain of south-central Wyoming. Forecast
   soundings across the region show a highly sheared environment, but
   the hodograph is structured such that storm motions will be quite
   slow unless driving by internal thunderstorm dynamics such as cold
   pool development. Given the strong shear, however, supercell or
   supercell-like structures will be possible with the ongoing (or
   additional) thunderstorms. A brief tornado could not be ruled out
   due to vorticity stretching beneath a rotating thunderstorm's
   updraft. A tornado was recently reported in Kit Carson County.

   Despite effective-layer shear that is supported of updraft
   organization and most-unstable CAPE sufficient for severe
   thunderstorms, the overall isolated nature of the current storms
   would tend to preclude the need for an additional watch.
   Additionally, with visible satellite imagery not showing additional
   severe-caliber convection being imminent, a new watch is not
   currently under consideration. However, trends will be monitored in
   case local extension of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #424 becomes
   necessary.

   ..Marsh.. 06/16/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   38340302 40190545 41030508 41000265 40460266 40430201
               38510206 38340302 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN