Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1314

   Mesoscale Discussion 1314
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0349 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

   Areas affected...east-central to northern MN

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 423...

   Valid 162049Z - 162215Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 423 continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat should increase into early evening as
   additional storms develop southward in central Minnesota and spread
   east.

   DISCUSSION...Initially low-topped convection has gradually deepened
   over the past hour. Cells near the surface cyclone in west-central
   MN have mainly had a brief tornado threat thus far. But an arcing
   line of towering CU towards Willmar ahead of the surface cold front
   suggests additional storms should form into the instability axis
   characterized by moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg.
   This activity should intensify into early evening and support a more
   sustained severe threat beyond brief tornadoes. The overall severe
   threat may peak into early evening with any sustained supercells
   that can interact with residual outflow from storms that have spread
   into west-central WI. MPX VWP data has sampled enhanced low-level
   SRH near this outflow.

   ..Grams.. 06/16/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

   LAT...LON   46569500 46879463 47279334 47329303 47219281 46939292
               46669272 46439272 46159290 45769304 45039312 44949354
               44979399 45179462 45589465 45969473 46249491 46569500 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN