Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1295

   Mesoscale Discussion 1295
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1146 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

   Areas affected...Central into northeast MT

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 416...

   Valid 150446Z - 150615Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 416
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms may continue into the late
   night.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered storms are ongoing late this evening across
   parts of central MT. While intensities have decreased somewhat from
   the earlier severe hail producing storms, a storm has recently
   intensified in Wheatland County. MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg and
   relatively strong effective shear (40-50 kt) will continue to
   support occasionally organized storms late tonight, with a threat of
   isolated hail and strong to severe gusts. 

   Guidance varies regarding the magnitude of the severe threat into
   the overnight, though persistent convection within a sufficiently
   unstable and sheared environment could support an isolated threat
   eventually spreading into parts of northeast MT with time.

   ..Dean.. 06/15/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

   LAT...LON   46381070 47461026 48350840 48680655 48690525 48220500
               47310546 47070722 46311040 46381070 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN