Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1294

   Mesoscale Discussion 1294
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1134 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of central/northeast OK

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 417...

   Valid 150434Z - 150600Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 417
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A severe threat will continue into the early overnight.

   DISCUSSION...A small storm cluster is propagating
   south-southeastward across central OK late this evening. A couple of
   embedded supercells are ongoing within this cluster, with additional
   development noted along the western portion of the trailing outflow.
   Despite some nocturnal cooling, instability remains large across the
   region, with MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg near/south of the outflow. 

   Effective shear of 30-40 kt will continue to support organized
   convection into the early overnight. Increasing low-level flow (as
   noted on the KTLX VWP) may continue to aid in development near/north
   of the outflow boundary/gust front, with some backbuilding possible.
   The stronger embedded cores remain capable of producing large hail,
   with some increase in severe-wind potential possible with time if
   any further upscale growth can occur.

   ..Dean.. 06/15/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

   LAT...LON   35199820 35329843 35559861 35919862 36059860 36259810
               35959706 36249641 36759620 36759569 36629546 36249531
               35769552 35469583 35369604 35329622 35049694 35019748
               35059790 35199820 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN