Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1293

   Mesoscale Discussion 1293
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0911 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

   Areas affected...West-central into northern OK and far southern KS

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 415...

   Valid 150211Z - 150345Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 415
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Storm coverage is expected to increase with time, with a
   continued severe threat. The greatest short-term supercell potential
   resides across parts of west-central OK.

   DISCUSSION...A relatively long-lived supercell (with a history of
   producing 2+ inch diameter hail) has shown some signs of weakening
   across Caddo County, OK, but additional cells are intensifying to
   its west. Strong to extreme buoyancy (MLCAPE of 3000-4500 J/kg) and
   sufficient deep-layer shear will continue to support short-term
   supercell potential across parts of western OK. Large to very large
   hail and localized severe gusts remain possible with the supercells
   in this area. Enlarged low-level hodographs near the remnant outflow
   boundary will also support some tornado potential for as long as
   surface-based supercells can be sustained. 

   Farther northeast, storms have recently developed across
   north-central OK. Storm coverage is expected to further increase
   with time, aided by a strengthening nocturnal low-level jet (as
   observed in recent VWPs from KTLX). Convection to the cool side of
   the remnant outflow may tend to remain slightly elevated, but
   buoyancy and shear are sufficient to support organized convection
   across the region into late tonight. 

   WW 415 has been locally expanded to address the severe threat across
   north-central OK. Trends will be monitored regarding the need for
   additional watch issuance beyond the 04Z expiration time of WW 415.

   ..Dean/Smith.. 06/15/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34929959 35979957 36659834 36949781 37129751 37139659
               36479647 35849638 35269693 34849834 34929959 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN