Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1291

   Mesoscale Discussion 1291
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0647 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

   Areas affected...Northeast NE...southeast
   SD...northwest/north-central IA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 142347Z - 150145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms may persist through mid
   evening.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered storms have developed along a
   quasi-stationary surface front from northeast NE/southeast SD into
   northwest IA. Moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg) is
   in place along/south of the front, though deep-layer flow/shear is
   rather weak. Storms thus far have exhibited pulse to weak multicell
   characteristics, though one storm did produce severe hail earlier in
   northwest IA. Isolated hail will continue to be possible with the
   strongest storms, along with some potential for localized downburst
   winds. Generally limited storm organization should tend to hamper
   the duration and coverage of the severe threat this evening, but
   some isolated potential could persist through mid evening.

   ..Dean/Smith.. 06/14/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...

   LAT...LON   42809811 43469688 43309500 43019320 42789282 42569266
               42169280 41799313 41439346 41939480 42129556 42189657
               42179728 42189749 42129798 42809811 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN