Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1290

   Mesoscale Discussion 1290
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0615 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of central/western OK into extreme
   north-central TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 142315Z - 150115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe storm development will become increasingly possible
   with time this evening. Watch issuance is possible.

   DISCUSSION...Attempts at convective initiation are underway across
   northwest OK, within an area of cumulus near a remnant outflow
   boundary. Another storm has developed across south-central OK.
   Strong to extreme instability (with MLCAPE of 3000-4500 J/kg) is in
   place along/south of the boundary, with modest northwesterly
   midlevel flow providing 30-40 kt of effective shear, sufficient for
   supercell development given the very strong instability. 

   Coverage and intensity of storms in the short term remains
   uncertain, due to rather nebulous large-scale ascent. However, at
   least isolated severe storm development is possible through 01 UTC,
   with coverage expected to increase with time later this evening in
   response to a strengthening low-level jet. Large to locally very
   large hail and localized severe gusts could accompany the strongest
   storms through the evening. Low-level hodograph enhancement near the
   outflow boundary could also support tornado potential. 

   Trends will be monitored for an increase in severe storm coverage
   this evening, and watch issuance is possible.

   ..Dean/Smith.. 06/14/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   36509984 36729845 36679659 35409629 33709655 33659845
               34349889 34939943 35349964 35899973 36509984 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN