SPC MD 1267

MD 1267 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 410… FOR SOUTHEAST WY/NORTHEAST CO INTO WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NE AND SOUTH-CENTRAL SD

Mesoscale Discussion 1267
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0608 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Areas affected...Southeast WY/northeast CO into
western/north-central NE and south-central SD

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 410...

Valid 122308Z - 130045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 410
continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for primarily large hail and severe gusts will
continue this evening.

DISCUSSION...Two clusters of potentially severe storms are ongoing
as of 23 UTC across WW 410. One is a backbuilding supercell cluster
near the NE/SD border north of Valentine, NE, in the vicinity of a
quasi-stationary surface front. Given the orientation of the
instability gradient, this cluster may attempt to propagate
southward with time, with continued backbuilding possible along its
western flank. Moderate to strong buoyancy (MLCAPE in excess of 2000
J/kg near/south of the front) and sufficient deep-layer shear will
continue to support potential for hail in the 1.5-2.5 inch range,
along with localized severe gusts. Also, while low-level flow is not
particularly strong, a tornado cannot be ruled out, given the
presence of supercell structures in the vicinity of the surface
boundary. 

Farther southwest, more loosely organized convection is ongoing near
the NE/WY border. Moderate to strong buoyancy will continue to
support an isolated hail threat in the short term. Consolidating
outflows may eventually result in an outflow-driven cluster with a
threat of severe gusts spreading eastward across the NE Panhandle
later this evening.

..Dean.. 06/12/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   41970508 42640468 43000225 43400117 43889995 44119924
            43929871 43329896 42479959 41630008 40270183 40360383
            40550415 40780437 41210483 41970508 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

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2025-06-12 23:10:06