Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1264

   Mesoscale Discussion 1264
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0357 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

   Areas affected...central/eastern Pennsylvania...portions of northern
   New Jersey

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 122057Z - 122300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Conditional risk for severe hail and wind possible this
   afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development is possible across portions of
   central PA this afternoon near the southward moving cold front.
   Visible satellite shows deepening cumulus across the area, with a
   few echos now on radar, as MLCIN has eroded over the last few hours.
   MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg is in place with deep layer shear around
   40 kts. Should thunderstorm development occur along the front, a
   supercell or two could be possible with potential for damaging wind
   and hail.  This threat will be monitored for watch potential.

   ..Thornton/Guyer.. 06/12/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...

   LAT...LON   41467754 41707641 41607493 41127363 40597364 40047399
               40547679 40937776 41467754 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN