Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1251

   Mesoscale Discussion 1251
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0239 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

   Areas affected...Northeast TX into western LA and far southwest AR

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 111939Z - 112145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Gusty winds are possible the remainder of the afternoon as
   a line of storms tracks northeast across the ArkLaTex vicinity.

   DISCUSSION...A line of storms has maintained organization along
   surging outflow as convection moves through a corridor of weak to
   moderate instability this afternoon. Some embedded stronger cells
   within this line are likely aided by 25-30 kt effective shear
   magnitudes within the unstable airmass.  Precipitable water values
   near 2 inches may further aid in sporadic wet microbursts, and
   locally strong gusts will be possible the remainder of the
   afternoon. Overall severe potential is expected to remain limited,
   and a watch is not expected at this time.

   ..Leitman/Guyer.. 06/11/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   32189482 32789499 33139477 33289422 33179357 32689300
               32069285 31359278 30859316 30729361 30829396 31949472
               32189482 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN