Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1224

   Mesoscale Discussion 1224
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0117 PM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025

   Areas affected...portions of Michigan

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 091817Z - 091945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of damaging wind and hail to
   increase through the afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have been increasing in coverage across
   Lake Michigan as forcing for ascent increases with an upper-level
   wave approaching. Across the Michigan peninsula, cumulus is
   increasing as well. Daytime heating has yielded MLCAPE around
   250-500 J/kg. Enhanced flow aloft with the wave and steep lapse
   rates will support potential for damaging winds and some instances
   of severe hail. This area is being monitored for a potential watch
   this afternoon.

   ..Thornton/Mosier.. 06/09/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   42008667 42908662 43778655 44478623 44848593 44568373
               44178339 43528327 42668357 41958378 41528416 41228534
               41358635 42008667 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN