Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1225

   Mesoscale Discussion 1225
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0145 PM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025

   Areas affected...south-central CO into central NM

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 091845Z - 092045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong gusts and hail possible through the
   afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms have developed over higher
   terrain early this afternoon with modest northwest flow aloft.
   Strong heating at steep lapse rates are supporting weak to moderate
   instability, aiding in occasional strong updraft pulses. Better
   boundary layer moisture will will remain to the east of the MCD area
   across far eastern NM. This drier boundary layer, combined with
   steep low-level lapse rates should support occasional strong to
   severe gusts. Cold temperature aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates
   also could result in sporadic hail. The overall risk should remain
   somewhat limited over the next few hours and a watch does not appear
   imminent in the short term, but severe potential could increase by
   late afternoon/early evening as convection develops downstream
   toward better moisture and vertical shear.

   ..Leitman/Mosier.. 06/09/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   37780505 37410424 36850408 36360431 34450509 33760526
               33540551 33670601 33840645 34690696 35210699 35720694
               37020616 37550566 37780505 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN