Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1221

   Mesoscale Discussion 1221
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1220 PM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025

   Areas affected...portions of north FL and southeast GA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 091720Z - 091915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Locally strong wind gusts may occur this afternoon with
   thunderstorm activity developing east/northeast across the region.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms across southern GA has
   occasionally shown near-severe level velocity signatures on radar of
   the past 30 minutes, and a gust to 55 mph was noted in Lowndes
   County GA. This activity is occurring within a moderately unstable
   but weakly sheared environment. Given weak shear, thunderstorms will
   likely remain somewhat disorganized. However, steep low-level lapse
   rates and PW values near 2 inches may support water-loaded
   downdrafts and sporadic strong downburst winds as convection
   develops east/northeast through the afternoon. Overall severe
   potential is expected to remain limited and a watch is not
   anticipated at this time.

   ..Leitman/Mosier.. 06/09/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...

   LAT...LON   31158401 31818316 32358170 32318115 31958085 31598093
               31098125 30578174 30288310 30378349 30748407 31158401 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN