Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1220

   Mesoscale Discussion 1220
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1055 AM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025

   Areas affected...portions of south-central KY into Middle TN and
   northern AL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 091555Z - 091800Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong/locally damaging gusts and small hail are
   possible this morning and afternoon as storms develop generally
   eastward the next several hours.

   DISCUSSION...A band of convection is occurring along an effective
   surface cold front from south-central KY into western/Middle TN.
   Additional storms are noted along a northward-advancing quasi-warm
   front feature across northern AL as well. Between these two
   features, filtered heating has allowed temperatures to warm into the
   upper 70 to low 80s amid upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints. This is
   fostering gradual destabilization heading into midday. Increasing
   cumulus is noted beneath breaks in higher level clouds, and
   additional convection and gradual intensification of ongoing storms
   is expected over the next couple of hours. While instability will
   remain modest, sufficient lapse rates and vertical shear on the
   southern periphery of stronger mid/upper westerly flow aloft should
   support some storm organization. Isolated strong/damaging gusts will
   be possible with this activity. Additionally, cool temperatures
   aloft (around -11 C) were noted on the 12z BNA RAOB. These cool
   temperatures aloft could aid in small hail production with any
   stronger/longer lived thunderstorm cores. Trends will be monitored
   for possible watch issuance over the next couple of hours.

   ..Leitman/Mosier.. 06/09/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   36588749 36898680 37248547 37198503 36828479 36198483
               35498526 35028562 34818601 34738677 34788751 35048818
               35288854 35548865 35978862 36168837 36588749 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN