Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1217

   Mesoscale Discussion 1217
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1129 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of north/central/east TX into western LA and
   extreme southeast OK/southwest AR

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 399...

   Valid 090429Z - 090600Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 399
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Swaths of damaging wind are possible into the overnight.

   DISCUSSION...A well-organized bow echo has evolved across northeast
   TX, with regional radars suggesting the presence of a rather strong
   rear-inflow jet. There is some lingering influence of earlier
   convection and related outflow downstream of this bow, but given its
   current organized state and the presence of favorable buoyancy and
   deep-layer shear, an organized damaging-wind threat (with gusts
   potentially 75 mph or greater) is likely to continue southeastward
   into at least the early overnight hours. Line-embedded tornadoes
   also cannot be ruled out. 

   Farther west, southward-moving outflow has resulted in measured
   severe gusts across parts of the DFW Metroplex. A small bowing
   segment with embedded supercells (the remnant of an earlier
   long-lived supercell cluster) has recently intensified and produced
   a 60 kt gust in Mineral Wells. This eastward-moving bow is
   intersecting the southward-moving outflow, and may continue eastward
   across parts of the Metroplex with a continued severe-wind threat,
   and possibly a tornado in the vicinity of the intersecting outflow
   boundaries.   

   Some severe threat may eventually spread east and south of WW 399,
   and local watch expansion and/or new watch issuance may eventually
   be needed.

   ..Dean/Gleason.. 06/09/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...

   LAT...LON   31859320 31169442 31049644 31549777 32499795 32809777
               33119590 34159531 34069436 33849398 33169358 32509323
               32149312 31859320 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN