Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1214

   Mesoscale Discussion 1214
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0839 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025

   Areas affected...Central/southern MO into southwest IL

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 395...

   Valid 090139Z - 090315Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 395
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms may spread southeast into
   late evening.

   DISCUSSION...Some recent intensification has been noted with storms
   near a cold front across south-central/southeast MO, with other
   strong storms ongoing within the post-frontal regime into
   west-central MO. For the storms near the front, MLCAPE of 1500-2000
   J/kg and modest deep-layer shear could support some threat for hail
   and damaging gusts. Longevity of these storms remains uncertain, but
   there is some potential for an isolated severe threat to eventually
   spread southeast out of WW 395. Any potential downstream watch
   issuance will depend on short-term trends regarding these storms
   over the next 60-90 minutes.  

   MUCAPE is still on the order of 1000 J/kg immediately north of the
   front, and an isolated severe threat cannot be ruled out with these
   storms as well through the evening. Any remaining severe threat
   should subside in the wake of the post-frontal storms, as cooler and
   more stable conditions move into the region.

   ..Dean/Gleason.. 06/09/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...EAX...

   LAT...LON   36779245 37229378 37699454 38049409 38649235 38459053
               38088933 37688926 37348935 37018984 36809037 36689083
               36659142 36689190 36779245 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN