Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1210

   Mesoscale Discussion 1210
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0617 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025

   Areas affected...the Mid Atlantic vicinity

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 392...

   Valid 082317Z - 090045Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 392 continues.

   SUMMARY...An isolated threat for a tornado, damaging wind, and hail
   may continue through the evening.

   DISCUSSION...Widely scattered strong storms are ongoing this evening
   across much of VA. The environment remains favorably moist and
   MLCAPE is generally in the 1000-2000 J/kg range, though weak
   midlevel lapse rates have tended to limit updraft strength thus far.
   Occasional rotation has been noted with the strongest cells, and
   effective shear of 30-40 kt will continue to support some supercell
   potential this evening. 

   Low-level flow is not particularly strong, but effective SRH remains
   locally enhanced near/north of a diffuse surface boundary extending
   from southeast to central VA, where winds are locally backed.
   Supercells near/north of this boundary could still pose some tornado
   threat. Otherwise, locally damaging wind and isolated hail could
   accompany the strongest storms.

   ..Dean.. 06/08/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...

   LAT...LON   37977960 39587862 39497749 38937584 37847518 36367516
               36037548 36457844 36757954 37497971 37977960 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN