Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1205

   Mesoscale Discussion 1205
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0350 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025

   Areas affected...portions of eastern Colorado and New Mexico

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 082050Z - 082245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Large hail and severe wind threat possible this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development has been ongoing across the
   Front Range in Colorado and across northeastern New Mexico. The air
   mass across Colorado remains under the influence of MLCIN, with
   temperatures cooling with northern extend behind the surface cold
   front. Moisture is also somewhat limited, with dew points in the
   upper 40s to 50s. A few instances of severe hail will be possible.

   Across eastern New Mexico near the dryline, a gradient of more
   appreciable MLCAPE 500-1500 j/kg is in place along with deep layer
   shear around 30-45 kts. Temperatures are in the mid 70s to 80s amid
   dew points in the 50s to upper 60s. This may support some instances
   of severe wind and hail, with at least one supercell noted on radar.
   Trends will be monitored for watch potential, but it appears
   unlikely at this time.

   ..Thornton/Guyer.. 06/08/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   35430435 35720483 36590502 37720541 38440568 38860579
               40050572 40140528 40170471 39990424 39230365 38670352
               37760350 36110345 35830369 35430435 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN