Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1202

   Mesoscale Discussion 1202
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0317 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025

   Areas affected...portions of southwestern and north-central
   Texas...southwestern Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 082017Z - 082215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Large hail/tornado threat to increase through the
   afternoon before a more significant wind threat emerges.

   DISCUSSION...Supercell thunderstorms are ongoing across portions of
   the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles as of this hour, with at least one
   tornado reported in Cimarron/Dallam counties. Additional development
   is ongoing west of Amarillo. It is likely some mix of supercell
   clusters will advance south and eastward through time, with
   potential for additional development to occur ahead of the dryline
   in New Mexico.

   Low-level shear improves with southward extent into Lubbock where
   surface winds are backed southeasterly improving low-level curvature
   of hodographs and streamwise vorticity. It is likely that as storms
   develop and move southward, the tornado threat will increase through
   time even with the shifting storm mode.

   A sharp gradient of extreme MLCAPE exists along the Red River near
   the Texas/Oklahoma border into north-central Texas amid steep low to
   mid-level lapse rates. As upscale growth increases, the potential
   will rapidly increase for destructive winds (80-100 mph). A Tornado
   or PDS Severe Watch is likely needed to cover this potential.

   ..Thornton/Guyer.. 06/08/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

   LAT...LON   32989778 32499909 32520039 33030180 33140195 33260213
               33570238 33970226 34220198 34450154 34640114 34890054
               34990025 34859872 34689799 34259739 34119726 33449729
               33079758 32989778 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...95-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN