Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1199

   Mesoscale Discussion 1199
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0119 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025

   Areas affected...portions of west-central IL...southwest to
   northeast MO...southeast KS...and northeast OK

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 081819Z - 082015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential will increase over the next
   couple of hours. Damaging gusts and large hail will be possible as
   storms develop eastward through early evening.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows increasing/deepening
   cumulus along the MO/IL portion of the cold front early this
   afternoon. Strong heating of a seasonally moist boundary layer is
   fostering weak to moderate instability (stronger instability with
   southwest extent into KS/OK). Isolated thunderstorms have recently
   develop across north-central MO just ahead of the cold front where
   inhibition has eroded. Additional thunderstorm development is
   expected along/ahead of the cold front over the next few hours.
   Stronger effective shear may lag just behind the cold front,
   regardless, sufficient speed shear and some stronger northwesterly
   mid/upper flow should allow for organized cells. Steep low-level
   lapse rates will support severe/locally damaging gust potential.
   Meanwhile, large hail also will be possible, particularly across
   southeast KS/northeast OK and portions of southwest MO where more
   robust updraft intensity is possible. 

   Severe potential does become more uncertain with northeast extent
   given the more modest parameter space, but a severe thunderstorm
   watch will likely be needed within the next couple of hours for
   portions of the MCD area.

   ..Leitman/Guyer.. 06/08/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   37639624 38179549 39319338 39789238 40249120 40179078
               39929039 39319048 38849065 38569098 36759376 36399453
               36289508 36289530 36339576 36539620 36769642 37059654
               37359644 37639624 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN