SPC MD 1200

MD 1200 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES

Mesoscale Discussion 1200
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025

Areas affected...Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 081827Z - 082030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Supercells capable of large to very large hail, damaging
wind, and tornadoes likely this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows increasing cu along a
stationary front located across northern OK into southwestern KS.
MLCIN remains in place across much of the OK/TX panhandles, however,
with temperatures warming into the mid 80s this is beginning to
weaken particularly on the northern and western fringes. Even with
morning elevated convection, a pronounced gradient of MLCAPE is
setting up along the panhandles to the Red River on the OK/TX
border.

Initial mode will likely be supercelluar, with potential for large
to very large (some 3-4"+) hail, damaging wind (some 70+ mph), and a
couple of tornadoes. VAD profiles from LUB and AMA depict low level
curvature of hodographs indicative of favorable low level shear to
support a tornado threat. Though cells may have the propensity to
cluster, strong deep layer shear and mesoscale storm interactions
will likely allow for some embedded tornado threat to persist even
with a shift in storm mode. A watch will be needed to cover this
threat in the coming hours.

..Thornton/Guyer.. 06/08/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   34940274 35680294 36300304 37030286 37090228 37120169
            37020135 36880095 36700062 36430010 35919989 35159985
            34929985 33770026 33220048 33100146 33090183 33250235
            33460256 33780258 34940274 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN

Read more
[og_img]

2025-06-08 18:45:04