Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1193

   Mesoscale Discussion 1193
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1150 PM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025

   Areas affected...Southeast IL...southern IN...western KY

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 080450Z - 080615Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A threat for locally damaging wind and/or a brief tornado
   cannot be ruled out into the early morning.

   DISCUSSION...Small rotating cells have occasionally developed
   tonight along the southern periphery of a convectively enhanced
   midlevel shortwave trough moving across parts of IL/IN. Midlevel
   lapse rates are quite weak across the region, and very little recent
   lightning activity has been noted with ongoing convection. However,
   earlier cells produced some damage across southeast MO, and the KPAH
   VWP depicts strengthening low-level flow and enlarging hodographs
   within a relatively moist environment. Ongoing convection may be
   capable of producing a brief tornado and/or localized wind damage
   into the early morning, before remaining convection eventually
   subsides.

   ..Dean/Gleason.. 06/08/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...

   LAT...LON   37438917 38038861 38728706 38718633 38558597 38038607
               37418641 37118704 37058826 37078905 37438917 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH