Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1190

   Mesoscale Discussion 1190
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0948 PM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025

   Areas affected...Northeast NM into parts of the TX Panhandle and
   South Plains

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 387...

   Valid 080248Z - 080415Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 387
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms could spread
   southeastward late tonight.

   DISCUSSION...A supercell moving into the western TX Panhandle has
   recently produced reports of 2+ inch hail, with another cluster of
   strong to occasionally severe storms ongoing across northeast NM.
   While low-level moisture and instability increase downstream of
   these storms, increasing CINH with time creates uncertainty
   regarding the longevity of the ongoing supercells. Some 00Z CAM
   guidance depicts an isolated supercell threat into late tonight, and
   an evolving low-level warm advection regime may help to maintain
   ongoing storms or develop new cells later tonight. 

   Effective shear will continue to be sufficient for supercells, even
   if convection becomes slightly elevated, and an isolated severe
   threat may spread southeastward with time later tonight. Given the
   isolated nature of the ongoing threat, the need for additional watch
   issuance in uncertain, but trends will continue to be monitored for
   an uptick in severe potential downstream of ongoing convection.

   ..Dean/Gleason.. 06/08/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   36890452 36830376 35820228 34680112 34050139 34020198
               34220270 34600296 35380338 35660354 36400441 36890452 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN