Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1186

   Mesoscale Discussion 1186
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0705 PM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025

   Areas affected...Northeast NM into the TX Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 387...

   Valid 080005Z - 080130Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 387
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms may spread southeast this evening.

   DISCUSSION...A couple of strong to potentially severe storms are
   ongoing across northeast NM early this evening. Deep-layer shear is
   sufficient for supercells, and with increasing low-level moisture
   and instability downstream, some intensification is possible in the
   short term as storms approach the TX Panhandle. A localized threat
   for large to very large hail and isolated strong/severe gusts could
   accompany these cells as they move southeastward. 

   With generally nebulous large-scale ascent, longevity of the severe
   threat later tonight is uncertain. However, depending on short-term
   observational trends, some local expansion of WW 387 may eventually
   be needed.

   ..Dean/Gleason.. 06/08/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AMA...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   36790450 36800343 36330281 35830093 35050102 35200322
               36200417 36790450 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN