Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1184

   Mesoscale Discussion 1184
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0538 PM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025

   Areas affected...Far southeast TN into northeast GA and parts of the
   western Carolinas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 386...

   Valid 072238Z - 080015Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 386
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A damaging-wind threat will spread eastward this evening.
   Downstream watch issuance is possible.

   DISCUSSION...A long-lived MCS with a history of wind damage is
   moving eastward across northern GA and vicinity early this evening.
   Recent measured gusts have generally been in the 40-48 kt range, and
   this system will likely remain capable of producing wind damage in
   the short term as it moves into northeast GA and western NC. 

   While this MCS does not appear quite as intense as earlier today,
   the system still has a substantial cold pool and has retained its
   fast forward motion at generally 40-45 kt. Moderate downstream
   buoyancy and earlier strong diurnal heating may continue to support
   a damaging-wind threat as this MCS moves eastward this evening,
   eventually approaching the eastern edge of WW 386. Eventual
   weakening is expected later tonight with the onset of nocturnal
   cooling/stabilization, but the wind-damage threat may remain
   sufficiently organized to support downstream watch issuance in the
   next hour.

   ..Dean/Gleason.. 06/07/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...

   LAT...LON   35538400 35778284 35608223 35108179 34648152 34098128
               33398132 32928165 32918251 32968315 33058364 33228410
               33928399 34668367 35538400 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN