Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1182

   Mesoscale Discussion 1182
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0341 PM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025

   Areas affected...portions of eastern Missouri and southern Illinois

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 072041Z - 072245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts and instances of marginally severe
   hail are possible across portions of eastern Missouri and southern
   Illinois this afternoon. A watch is not anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...An MCV is currently centered northwest of Columbia, MO
   with some convection ongoing along a trailing surface boundary to
   the south. Clouds have cleared to the south of the vortex with some
   heating and modification of the earlier outflow from convection
   across the Mid-South. As such, a pocket of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE has
   developed in the region along with strong deep-layer shear. RAP
   forecast soundings show a warm nose around 750 mb, which has
   generally suppressed convective development away from surface
   boundaries. Given strong flow aloft, some damaging gusts are
   possible with this activity if downdrafts are strong enough to
   transfer that momentum to the surface, though this may be inhibited
   by the aforementioned warm nose aloft and generally poor low-level
   lapse rates. Some marginally severe hail is also possible given
   straight hodographs with the cellular activity, though poor
   mid-level lapse rates (6 C/km per mesoanalysis) may limit the
   overall hail potential.

   ..Supinie/Thompson.. 06/07/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...EAX...

   LAT...LON   37459169 37699276 38659270 39199190 39419123 39479088
               39389036 39048965 38568931 38028923 37558978 37459081
               37459169 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN