Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1183

   Mesoscale Discussion 1183
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0429 PM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025

   Areas affected...parts of Southwest Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 072129Z - 072300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms developing off the Davis Mountains
   and Southwest TX may pose a risk for isolated hail and damaging
   gusts.

   DISCUSSION...As of 2130 UTC, regional radar and satellite imagery
   showed incipient updrafts over the eastern Davis Mountains and Rio
   Grande Valley were steadily deepening. As afternoon heating and weak
   low-level upslope flow continues, these updrafts may continue to
   mature. The environment is broadly favorable for severe storms with
   moderate buoyancy and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. This could
   support supercell structures capable of isolated hail. The well
   mixed low-level air mass (surface temps near 100 F) may also support
   damaging gusts with the stronger storms.

   Confidence in sustained deep convection is not particularly high as
   forcing for ascent is weak. Some CAM guidance suggests one or two
   more organized storms may eventually evolve and persist into the
   evening before weakening after dark. While the overall storm
   evolution is uncertain, some local severe risk exists. The low storm
   coverage and expected decrease in severe potential after sunset
   suggests a WW is not needed, but convective trends will continue to
   be monitored given the broadly favorable environment.

   ..Lyons/Gleason.. 06/07/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   30330169 31060177 31400251 30790379 29180423 28910316
               29240278 29870201 30330169 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN