Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1174

   Mesoscale Discussion 1174
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0733 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025

   Areas affected...northeast Arkansas...western Tennessee...and far
   northern Mississippi.

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 071233Z - 071400Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A watch may eventually be needed across western Tennessee
   and vicinity.

   DISCUSSION...A well-developed squall line exists this morning from
   north-central Arkansas into southeast Oklahoma. Sporadic, mostly
   sub-severe, wind gusts have been evident along this line this
   morning. Ahead of this line, a cluster of storms has developed
   within a warm-air advection regime across Arkansas. A few stronger
   cells have developed within this cluster, but do not expect this
   activity to produce a greater/widespread severe weather threat. The
   greatest risk is associated with the squall line farther west, and
   whether it maintains intensity as it moves east. At least some
   heating appears likely this morning along the southern edge of the
   upper-level cirrus shield.  Therefore, a severe thunderstorm watch
   may be needed at some point to address this threat, but a watch is
   not anticipated for the preceding cells/cluster at this time.

   ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/07/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LZK...

   LAT...LON   36439119 36429008 36458889 35928805 35418782 35018786
               34668809 34318899 34289013 34329064 34439115 36439119 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN