Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1173

   Mesoscale Discussion 1173
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0530 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025

   Areas affected...far eastern Oklahoma and parts of northwest and
   central Arkansas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 382...

   Valid 071030Z - 071200Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 382 continues.

   SUMMARY...An organizing squall line across eastern Oklahoma is
   capable of severe winds and embedded tornadoes this morning.

   DISCUSSION...A squall line across eastern Oklahoma has become
   increasingly organized over the past 30 minutes as it moved into a
   reservoir of moderate instability (2000 J/kg MUCAPE per SPC
   mesoanalysis) where dewpoints are in the low to mid 70s. The
   reflectivity structure and base velocity has improved greatly along
   the squall line and a recent TDS was apparent south of Tahlequah.
   Given the intensity of this squall line, expect at least some
   tornado threat to continue given the strong low-level shear present
   on the SRX VWP (365 0-1km SRH) and near 100 percent streamwiseness
   based on current line orientation. 

   Given the expectation for a continued severe wind/embedded tornado
   threat through the morning, a downstream tornado watch may be needed
   across portions of central Arkansas.

   ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/07/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...

   LAT...LON   36399424 36159332 35809254 35599223 35219221 34829250
               34739297 34809367 35009457 35219506 35479549 35889519
               36399424 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH