Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1172

   Mesoscale Discussion 1172
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0351 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025

   Areas affected...parts of central Oklahoma

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 381...

   Valid 070851Z - 071015Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 381 continues.

   SUMMARY...A corridor of greater severe wind threat is likely
   developing across parts of central Oklahoma.

   DISCUSSION...A well-developed bowing line segment developed across
   western Oklahoma and is now moving into central Oklahoma. Measured
   wind speeds within this line have been mostly sub-severe thus far.
   Primary reason for this is likely due to a reservoir of lesser
   instability across southwest and west-central Oklahoma where earlier
   storms impacted. However, this line of storms is nearing greater
   instability south of I-40 and east of I-35 (Low to mid 70s
   dewpoints). Some sign of intensification may be occurring in the
   line with a stronger core which recently developed across southwest
   Canadian county. 

   Another complicating factor is southward moving outflow which moved
   out of the northern bow echo and has now advanced ahead of this line
   of storms. This could also continue to lessen intensity of this
   line. However, as it moves into the more unstable airmass across
   southern and eastern Oklahoma, it may also serve as a focus for
   additional storm development ahead of the line. 

   Despite the uncertainties, the organized nature of the bow as it
   advances into greater instability increases confidence for some
   severe wind threat as this line of storms continues to move
   southeast. In addition, nearly 300 m2/s2 of 0-1km SRH from the KTLX
   VWP will support some tornado threat through the early morning
   hours.

   ..Bentley.. 06/07/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34829776 34959823 35129867 35299866 35599837 35839821
               35699750 35379666 35129649 34769643 34779732 34829776 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN