Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1166

   Mesoscale Discussion 1166
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1108 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of southwest into south-central KS

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 380...

   Valid 070408Z - 070545Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 380
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Some severe threat may spread east across southern KS
   overnight.

   DISCUSSION...To the north of ongoing supercells across the OK
   Panhandle, less intense convection is ongoing across southwest KS.
   Thus far, relatively cool near-surface conditions have likely tended
   to limit the severe threat across southwest KS. However, convection
   is likely to persist into the overnight, aided by a low-level
   warm-advection regime and a mid/upper-level shortwave trough moving
   across the central High Plains. MUCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg (greater
   with southward extent) and moderate effective shear may yet support
   development of a few stronger cells/clusters, with some potential
   for locally damaging wind and hail. An isolated severe threat may
   eventually spread east of WW 380; the need for downstream watch
   issuance is uncertain, but may be considered if there is a notable
   uptick in storm intensity and organization across southwest KS over
   the next 1-2 hours.

   ..Dean/Gleason.. 06/07/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...

   LAT...LON   37220119 38419948 38409849 38269769 38049739 37649730
               37079744 37039797 37059924 37030119 37220119 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN