Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1145

   Mesoscale Discussion 1145
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1101 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025

   Areas affected...Southern New England

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 061601Z - 061800Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail will be
   possible with multicell storms after 18-19z (2-3p EDT) this
   afternoon.  The need for a watch is uncertain.

   DISCUSSION...Strong surface heating is ongoing across southern New
   England along and south of a diffuse baroclinic/differential heating
   zone.  As surface temperatures warm through the mid-upper 80s with
   mid-upper 60s dewpoints, MLCAPE will increase to near 2000 J/kg with
   minimal convective inhibition.  By early-mid afternoon, widely
   scattered thunderstorm development will become probable along the
   diffuse baroclinic zone/buoyancy gradient.  Steep low-level lapse
   rates, DCAPE of 750-1000 J/kg and precipitation loading could favor
   isolated wind damage with downbursts, while the moderately large
   buoyancy will be sufficient for marginally severe hail.  Vertical
   shear will remain relatively weak and the storms are currently
   expected to remain only loosely organized, so the need for a watch
   this afternoon is uncertain.

   ..Thompson/Smith.. 06/06/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...

   LAT...LON   42277141 41837132 41607160 41487249 41347332 41777359
               42277352 42497313 42697244 42647166 42277141 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN