Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1122

   Mesoscale Discussion 1122
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0120 PM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025

   Areas affected...Southeast Colorado into southwest Kansas and parts
   of the Oklahoma Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 051820Z - 052015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing across southeast Colorado should
   intensify through the afternoon, and eventually migrating into
   southwest Kansas and parts of the Oklahoma Panhandle late this
   afternoon/evening. Watch issuance is likely within the next hour or
   so to address this threat.

   DISCUSSION...Latest GOES imagery shows a few deepening towers with
   occasional lightning flashes along a surface convergence
   band/surface trough emanating southwestward from a weak meso-low.
   This boundary denotes the northwestward extent of the richer
   low-level moisture (dewpoints in the low to mid 60s) and greater
   buoyancy. A warm advection regime across the region, coupled with
   somewhat muted diurnal heating, will continue to expand the viable
   warm sector downstream into southwest KS as well as bolster overall
   buoyancy magnitudes (MLCAPE likely up to 2000-2500 J/kg by mid to
   late afternoon). While some residual capping is evident in stable
   billow clouds immediately downstream from the developing convection,
   the overall destabilization trend should favor continued maturation
   of the incipient storms through mid-afternoon across southeast CO.
   Southeasterly low-level flow beneath 30-40 knot mid-level winds will
   support very elongated hodographs favorable for initially discrete
   supercells capable of producing large to very large hail (possibly
   up to 2.5-3.5 inches in diameter). Strengthening southerly flow
   within the 1-3 km layer through late afternoon will promote an
   increasing tornado threat before greater upscale growth occurs later
   this evening across southwest KS/northwest OK.

   ..Moore/Thompson.. 06/05/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   37170379 37500362 38360212 38370202 38400140 38290067
               38040022 37880009 37750001 37349997 36990014 36820036
               36700062 36670096 36850326 36910366 37170379 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN