Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1121

   Mesoscale Discussion 1121
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1256 PM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of southwest Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 051756Z - 052000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...The risk of supercells capable of producing large to giant
   hail and locally severe gusts will increase through the afternoon. A
   watch is likely for parts of the area within the hour.

   DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer cumulus is deepening along the Davis
   Mountains in the TX Trans-Pecos, with additional agitated cumulus
   (albeit more shallow) evident into far southeast NM. Continued
   diurnal heating amid deep/rich boundary-layer moisture (middle/upper
   60s dewpoints) will yield strong surface-based instability. As
   inhibition continues to erode, thunderstorms should develop over the
   terrain features, before spreading eastward through the afternoon.
   The strong buoyancy and a long/straight hodograph (characterized by
   around 50 kt of effective shear) will favor discrete/splitting
   supercells -- given weak large-ascent. Large to giant hail (3+
   inches) will be the main concern with this activity, though severe
   gusts and perhaps a tornado or two will also be possible. A watch
   will likely be issued within the hour.

   ..Weinman/Thompson.. 06/05/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   30610468 31710467 32370423 32670365 32630275 32400202
               31870188 31180195 30310230 29850272 29540336 29560392
               29940449 30610468 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN