Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1119

   Mesoscale Discussion 1119
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1242 PM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of western Oklahoma...the eastern Texas
   Panhandle...and northwest Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 051742Z - 051915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...The risk of large hail, severe gusts, and perhaps a
   tornado or two will increase through the afternoon. A watch is being
   issued for parts of the area.

   DISCUSSION...Clusters of thunderstorms are evolving over the eastern
   TX Panhandle along an antecedent outflow boundary -- where
   lower/middle 60s dewpoints are in place. Through the afternoon, this
   activity will continue spreading/developing eastward into western
   OK, where clearing clouds are supporting diurnal heating and related
   increasing surface-based instability. A long/generally straight
   hodograph (40-50 kt of effective shear) will favor a mix of
   organized clusters and supercell structures -- capable of producing
   large hail and severe gusts, though a tornado or two cannot be
   entirely ruled out with supercells. A watch is being issued for
   parts of the area.

   ..Weinman/Thompson.. 06/05/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...

   LAT...LON   33729986 34829998 35660023 36290010 36459948 36449881
               36299829 35579813 34099810 33669842 33549903 33729986 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN