Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1116

   Mesoscale Discussion 1116
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1147 PM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025

   Areas affected...parts of the Texas Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 365...

   Valid 050447Z - 050615Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 365
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm Watch 365 is being locally extended in
   time for an hour or two.  However, a new severe weather watch is not
   anticipated, with stronger storms expected to continue to wane in
   intensity through 1-2 AM CDT.

   DISCUSSION...Coldest cloud tops have recently warmed, but vigorous
   thunderstorm development continues.  This appears generally focused
   along and just to the cool side of consolidating convective outflow,
   south of a meso-beta scale cyclonic circulation now migrating south
   through east of the Dalhart vicinity.  

   Based on the latest objective analysis, peak boundary-layer
   instability within lee surface troughing near the Texas/New Mexico
   state border vicinity is tending to stabilize, and guidance suggests
   little substantive destabilization of an initially stable boundary
   layer eastward across the remainder of the Panhandle and South
   Plains overnight.  As updraft inflow continues to become less
   unstable, weakening of convection appears likely to result in
   diminishing potential for severe hail and wind through 06-07Z.

   ..Kerr.. 06/05/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   35370162 35360013 34280131 34490348 35040224 35370162 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN