Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1106

   Mesoscale Discussion 1106
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1032 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025

   Areas affected...East-central MO into a small part of western IL

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 361...

   Valid 040332Z - 040530Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 361
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A localized severe threat may continue eastward late
   tonight.

   DISCUSSION...A small storm cluster with embedded bowing segments is
   moving across east-central MO late this evening. This cluster has a
   history of sporadic wind-damage reports, though recent trends
   suggest some weakening. While wind profiles remain favorable for
   organized convection, weak downstream buoyancy results in
   uncertainty regarding the magnitude and longevity of the severe
   threat as this cluster moves eastward. However, locally damaging
   gusts remain possible, and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out given
   favorable low-level shear/SRH and the presence of an outflow
   boundary draped across the region. 

   Short-term trends will continue to be monitored regarding the need
   for local extension/expansion of WW 361.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 06/04/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   39169203 39509086 39689006 39468977 38968965 38698979
               38379005 38239081 38249126 38359188 39169203 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN