Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1105

   Mesoscale Discussion 1105
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1008 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of Central and North Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 362...364...

   Valid 040308Z - 040515Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 362, 364
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds, isolated large hail, and
   perhaps a tornado will continue in parts of Central and North Texas.

   DISCUSSION...Earlier discrete convection has evolved into two main
   clusters of storms near the DFW metro. The northern cluster is
   taking a more easterly track while the southern cluster is moving
   southeastward. These clusters will pose the greatest severe risk
   over the next 1-2 hours. Moderately strong cold pools will support a
   risk for damaging winds. With the KFWS VAD showing 0-1 km SRH values
   near 200, the risk for a brief tornado will also exist. However,
   storm mode and increasing inhibition (gradual given low 70s F
   dewpoints) will tend to limit a greater threat. Farther west,
   elevated storms have developed just behind the cold front.
   Additional storms could form as the front moves south, but it is not
   clear if they will be surface based or more than marginally severe.
   A few discrete storms have also developed near Waco within the
   instability axis. Whether these storms can intensify this far
   removed from greater mid-level ascent is not clear. Overall, strong
   shear and a buoyant airmass will support a severe threat over the
   next few hours despite relatively modest lapse rates noted in
   observed soundings within the region tonight.

   ..Wendt.. 06/04/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...

   LAT...LON   33119606 31929682 31469720 31239762 31209837 31339913
               31809947 32069943 32339863 32539812 33319744 33729704
               33679620 33119606 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN