Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1099

   Mesoscale Discussion 1099
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0614 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of eastern IA...northeast MO...western IL

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 361...

   Valid 032314Z - 040045Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 361
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind and possibly a tornado will
   spread northeastward this evening.

   DISCUSSION...A QLCS has evolved across southeast IA into northeast
   MO, and will continue spreading northeastward into a moist and
   moderately unstable environment. A small bowing segment has evolved
   within the northern portion of the QLCS across southeast IA, where
   the orientation of the line has become more orthogonal to the
   deep-layer shear vectors. This section of the line may pose a
   locally greater threat of damaging wind through early evening as it
   moves into northwest IL. Low-level shear (as depicted on the KDVN
   VWP) is also sufficient to support some potential for a
   line-embedded tornado. 

   Farther south, the environment remains favorable along the southern
   portion of the QLCS, and a threat for damaging wind and possibly a
   brief tornado will eventually spread into west-central IL. Isolated
   hail will also be possible with the stronger embedded cells.

   ..Dean.. 06/03/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

   LAT...LON   41109205 42209067 42348976 42328947 42108928 41528923
               40328994 39439066 39039179 39639181 40069174 40649166
               41109205 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN