Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1086

   Mesoscale Discussion 1086
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1037 PM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025

   Areas affected...North-central/northeast OK into
   south-central/southeast KS

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 358...

   Valid 030337Z - 030530Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 358
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Some threat for damaging wind and isolated hail may spread
   east overnight.

   DISCUSSION...While some weakening has been noted within parts of an
   extensive outflow-driven QLCS, a smaller eastward-moving cluster has
   evolved across north-central OK into south-central KS. While CINH
   will generally increase with time, the eastward-surging outflow
   moving through a strongly unstable environment may continue to
   produce occasional stronger updrafts, potentially aided to some
   extent by a rather substantial low-level jet. Increasing low-level
   flow/shear may allow for localized severe/damaging gusts along the
   gust front, though rather weak deep-layer shear may continue to
   limit the overall organization of the larger cluster. 

   With time, some potential for sporadic severe/damaging gusts may
   spread into northeast OK and southeast KS. Isolated hail will also
   be possible. The need for downstream watch issuance is uncertain,
   given the current expectation that the severe threat will remain
   rather isolated, but observational trends will continue to be
   monitored for any increase in storm intensity and organization.

   ..Dean/Guyer.. 06/03/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   35899845 37269781 38759765 38799665 38719599 37789568
               37249584 36509619 36109649 35899688 35849737 35769832
               35899845 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN