Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1065

   Mesoscale Discussion 1065
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0501 PM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025

   Areas affected...Portions of Southwest Montana and adjacent
   Idaho/Wyoming

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 012201Z - 020000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe wind gusts and marginally severe hail are possible
   this afternoon and evening in portions of southwest Montana. A watch
   is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...Convection has continued to deepen within the terrain
   of southwest Montana this afternoon as a trough moves in from the
   west. A belt of stronger mid-level winds has overspread the region
   and will promote organized storms. Though boundary-layer moisture is
   modest (low to mid 40s F), steepening mid-level lapse rates and
   daytime heating have increased MLCAPE to 500 J/kg. Storms will
   initially be discrete and be capable of marginally severe hail and
   severe wind gusts. Large temperature/dewpoint spreads should lead to
   outflow dominant storms with some potential for clustering. Should
   clustering occur, a locally greater threat for severe wind gusts
   would exist as storms move northeast this evening. Stable conditions
   in central Montana should limit the spatial extent of the threat,
   however.

   ..Wendt/Hart.. 06/01/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...

   LAT...LON   44161222 43881337 44061392 44311392 44621369 45181304
               46171060 46320952 45990904 45450902 44621090 44161222 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN