Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1060

   Mesoscale Discussion 1060
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0705 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025

   Areas affected...South-central Florida Peninsula

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 011205Z - 011400Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated tornado threat may continue for the next two
   to three hours across south-central Florida. The threat is expected
   to remain localized, and weather watch issuance appears unlikely,
   although trends will be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...An east-to-west band of strong thunderstorms is ongoing
   across south-central Florida, along a zone of somewhat focused
   low-level convergence. The storms are being supported by a shortwave
   trough that is moving through the eastern Gulf. A mid-level jet
   streak is analyzed by the RAP from the eastern Gulf extending
   eastward across the Florida Peninsula. This jet has strengthened
   deep-layer shear over south-central Florida into the 40 to 50 knot
   range, according to the RAP. This will support isolated supercell
   development this morning. Although RAP forecast soundings across
   south-central Florida suggest that low-level shear is not
   particularly strong, storm-relative helicity could be locally higher
   near the zone of low-level convergence. As a result, transient
   supercells could be capable of producing low to mid-level rotation,
   with a brief tornado possible. Marginally severe wind gusts could
   also occur. The threat should remain localized, and watch issuance
   is currently not expected.

   ..Broyles/Bunting.. 06/01/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

   LAT...LON   26778042 26618143 26708180 26928189 27158176 27248149
               27408071 27388023 27148010 26918011 26778042 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH